By Chukwuma Charles Soludo, CFR
April 2020
This piece summarizes my contribution to an African debate. From Johannesburg
to Lagos, Cairo to Dakar, Kinshasa to Kigali, Nairobi to Accra, etc the debate
on how Africa should respond to the global coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic is
raging. At an African regional policy platform, I had expressed some of these
(personal) views some weeks ago but have been encouraged by most members to
circulate them in Africa beyond the platform.
This year 2020 begins a new decade that promises to be one of dreadful
disruptions, with Africa holding the weakest end of the stick. In 2008/09, the
global “great recession” was triggered by financial crisis in the US (world’s
largest economy). Then, much of Africa was said to be decoupled from the
crisis and muddled through without severe devastation of its economies. This
year, a global health pandemic that has paused the global economy and certain
to rail-road it into synchronized recession (if not depression) was triggered
by the second largest economy, China. Unlike before, multilateralism and
global coordination framework are at their weakest. National (local)
self-defence is the rule. As before, the rich world with its generous welfare
system and huge financial war chest, is taking care of itself (the US alone
has US$2.2 trillion stimulus package). Africa is left to its fate.
Covid-19 caught the world totally unprepared, and with no proven and available
medical response. Ad-hoc cocktails and learning-by-doing constitute the
strategic package. In most western countries, the cocktail of response has
included a coterie of defensive measures including: border closure; prepare
isolation centres and mobilize medical personnel/facilities; implement “stay
at home” orders or lockdowns except for food, medicine and essential services;
campaign for basic hygiene and social distancing; arrange welfare packages for
the vulnerable; and also economic stimulus packages to mitigate the effects on
the macro economy.
Many African countries have largely copied the above template, to varying
degrees. Piece-meal extensions of “stay at home” or lockdown orders as in many
western countries have also been copied in Africa. But the question is: can
Africa really afford lockdowns, and can they be effective? Put differently,
given the social and economic circumstances of Africa and the impending
‘economic pandemic’, can Africa successfully and sustainably defeat Covid-19
by copying the conventional trial-and-error template of the western nations?
In confusion and desperation, the world seemed to be throwing any and
everything at the pandemic. Recall President Trump’s assertion that
hydroxychloroquine “might help”? The evidence so far (from limited sample) is
that it probably actually worsens the disease. The trial and error have left
huge human toll and economic ruins, and there is still no solution.